Opinion: Trump Didn’t Start Wars—But He Pushed Us Closer to the Ones We’re Facing Now.

By Mark Boushell

11/14/2024

Donald Trump’s presidency has often been touted by his supporters as a period of “peace through strength.” Unlike many of his predecessors, Trump didn’t initiate a new major conflict during his time in office. But while he might not have started wars, his policies and diplomatic choices have arguably destabilized key regions, frayed alliances, and left a vacuum of American influence that is now being filled with escalating conflicts.

As we look at the unfolding crises in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and beyond, we can see how Trump’s approach to foreign policy didn’t prevent war so much as shift it out of view temporarily, setting the stage for today’s heightened global tensions. Here’s how the former president’s decisions, though short on direct military engagement, have led us closer to the wars we’re now witnessing.

A Withdrawal That Created Power Vacuums

One of Trump’s most consequential foreign policy moves was his rapid withdrawal from established military operations and alliances, most notably in Syria and Afghanistan. In Syria, Trump’s abrupt decision to pull U.S. troops from Kurdish-controlled areas in 2019 led to chaos, as Turkey quickly moved in to attack the Kurds, our longstanding allies in the fight against ISIS. The Kurdish forces, caught off-guard, were left to fend for themselves, ultimately making agreements with the Syrian government and, by extension, Russia, to survive.

By stepping back from these areas of influence, Trump signaled to adversarial powers like Russia and Turkey that the U.S. was retreating from its role in the Middle East. This shift emboldened regional actors, creating openings for them to pursue more aggressive strategies, unchecked by American deterrence. Today’s escalating tensions in the region—visible in Syria, Turkey, and Iran—are in part the product of a weakened U.S. presence, which encouraged power plays among other nations with conflicting interests.

The Erosion of Alliances and International Trust

In his quest for a more “America First” approach, Trump frequently questioned the value of long-standing alliances, including NATO. By openly criticizing NATO allies and even questioning whether the U.S. would come to their defense, Trump signaled that America might no longer be a reliable partner in the event of a crisis. This rhetoric weakened NATO’s deterrence capabilities and made Eastern European allies, particularly Ukraine and the Baltic states, more vulnerable to Russian aggression.

The hesitancy within NATO, shaped by Trump’s unpredictability, may have contributed to Russia’s calculations in its invasion of Ukraine. Russia may have interpreted Trump’s ambivalence toward defending NATO allies as a sign of waning U.S. commitment, giving it greater confidence to act. While Trump didn’t directly cause the war in Ukraine, his approach to NATO, combined with his general distrust of multilateral alliances, helped create a sense of permissiveness that likely influenced Russia’s calculations.

Iran Nuclear Deal Withdrawal: A Path to Escalation

One of Trump’s hallmark foreign policy decisions was to pull the United States out of the Iran nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The deal, brokered under the Obama administration, had placed significant restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Trump’s decision to abandon the deal and impose crippling economic sanctions on Iran left the country with little incentive to continue honoring its nuclear commitments. Since then, Iran has accelerated its nuclear program, increasing uranium enrichment levels and reducing the time needed to potentially build a nuclear weapon.

The withdrawal from the JCPOA not only undermined U.S. credibility in negotiations with Iran but also heightened tensions in the Middle East. Iran’s increased nuclear activities have brought Israel and other regional players closer to considering military action to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear capabilities. By unraveling the deal, Trump may not have initiated a war with Iran, but he brought the region dangerously close to one. The strained relations have set the stage for a conflict that could escalate rapidly, impacting the entire Middle East and beyond.

A Strained Relationship with China

Another critical flashpoint is the relationship between the United States and China, which deteriorated significantly under Trump. While his administration took a tougher stance on China, particularly on trade, he often approached the relationship erratically, mixing sanctions and tariffs with moments of praise for President Xi Jinping. The lack of a consistent, strategic approach left both countries on high alert, especially as Trump ramped up rhetoric around issues like Taiwan, the South China Sea, and Hong Kong.

Under Trump, the U.S. strengthened its support for Taiwan, making arms sales and pledging security assistance. While these moves may have been intended to counter China’s influence, they also heightened Beijing’s sense of urgency to assert control over Taiwan. Trump’s approach placed Taiwan at the center of rising U.S.-China tensions without the robust diplomatic support needed to manage the risk of confrontation. The friction has persisted into the current administration, and tensions over Taiwan’s future remain a dangerous flashpoint that could lead to armed conflict.

Conclusion: The Long-Term Impact of Short-Term Thinking

Trump’s foreign policy moves, though often framed as “peaceful” due to the absence of new wars, created the conditions for today’s global hotspots to ignite. By prioritizing short-term wins and undermining alliances, Trump left a legacy of instability in regions where American influence has historically played a stabilizing role. His lack of consistent strategy in the Middle East, his withdrawal from international agreements, and his ambivalence toward global alliances left critical power vacuums now filled by adversarial powers like Russia, China, and Iran.

Now, as we confront crises that are increasingly spilling over into global affairs—from the ongoing war in Ukraine to rising tensions in the Middle East and a standoff in the Taiwan Strait—it’s clear that avoiding direct war wasn’t the same as preventing conflict. Trump’s retreat from American commitments and his undermining of strategic alliances have pushed us closer to wars that may still be unfolding. The consequences of these policies are now more apparent than ever, underscoring that a commitment to genuine peace requires more than just the absence of active warfare—it requires sustained diplomacy, strong alliances, and strategic engagement with the world.

This article was written with assistance from ChatGPT, an AI language model developed by OpenAI.